At the 2012 MARPA Annual Conference, Tom Cooper of Team SAI consulting offered a glimpse of the global MRO outlook in the coming years. Team SAI is an aviation specialty firm that combines industry experience from air carriers and MROs.
Team SAI expects slight improvement in the near term as the global economy recovers, but cautioned that the industry remains subject to shocks around the world. Mr. Cooper projected an increase in the pace of fleet renewal, as fleets both grow in response to increased demand and air carriers replace retiring aircraft. Mr. Cooper expects also global MRO business to shift East over the next decade, as Asia sees rapid MRO expansion.
Team SAI also observed that MRO growth in North America will be low relative to the rest of the industry, with low fleet growth, and more durable equipment and longer maintenance intervals on newer aircraft. Additionally, OEMs will continue to attempt to capture the MRO market by pre-packaging cost-per-hour maintenance programs with new aircraft.
Team SAI suggested that OEM MRO-market capture, newer aircraft driving technical changes for non-OEM MROs, and decreasing service life of aircraft as valuations diminish and newer planes go to part-out, will be long-term trends that will continue to influence MRO.
Cooper’s economic outlook discussion was an important part of the Annual Conference.
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